Triangle Housing Market: What 2025 Revealed and What Comes Next

The insights below are pulled from the Triangle Area Residential Realty (TARR) year-end market report, which reviews housing trends across four Triangle-area counties: Wake, Durham, Orange, and Johnston. While every neighborhood behaves a little differently, these county-level takeaways offer a helpful view of what happened in 2025 and what to watch as we move through 2026.

Inventory Is Up, But Still Historically Tight

One of the biggest headlines is inventory growth. New listings across these four counties increased again in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of inventory gains. That is good news for buyers who have felt boxed out over the last few years.

That said, context matters. Even with these increases, overall inventory is still well below earlier norms. Compared to the years leading up to 2020, there are simply fewer homes available across the market. That ongoing undersupply continues to support home values and helps prevent dramatic price swings.

What this means:

• Buyers have more options than they did in 2021 through 2023, but competition has not disappeared.

• Sellers still benefit from limited supply, especially for well-priced, move-in ready homes.

  
  

Home Prices Have Stabilized

After the rapid appreciation of the pandemic years, price growth cooled. In 2025, home prices increased at a much more modest pace, closer to what we would call a normal market year.

This stabilization is healthy. It gives buyers confidence they are not chasing runaway prices, while sellers can still rely on long-term value growth rather than short-term spikes.

What this means:

• Buyers are less likely to feel priced out month to month.

• Sellers need to price more strategically, since overpricing is less likely to be forgiven by the market.

  
  

Mortgage Rates Quietly Improved in 2025

One of the most important trends highlighted in the TARR report was what happened to mortgage rates. Rates started the year a little over 7% and eased closer to the mid-6% range by year’s end.

Here is the part many buyers and sellers miss: even as prices edged up slightly, average monthly mortgage payments moved down by the end of the year because rates improved.

This matters because buyers do not shop based on price alone. They shop based on the monthly payment.

What this means:

• Waiting for rates to drop perfectly may not be necessary to improve affordability.

• Small changes in rates can have a meaningful impact on monthly costs, even in a steadier price environment.

  
  

Homes Are Still Selling, Just More Thoughtfully

Days on market remained reasonable in 2025 and even improved slightly compared to the prior year. Homes are not flying off the shelf in a weekend anymore, but they also are not sitting unsold for months like in a true downturn.

Another major signal from the report is that more sellers adjusted pricing during the year. That is not automatically a sign of a weak market. It is often a sign of a market that is returning to a more normal rhythm where pricing needs to match buyer expectations.

What this means:

• Buyers have more room for due diligence and thoughtful decision-making.

• Sellers who price realistically are still seeing strong outcomes.

  
  

What We Are Watching for 2026

As we move into 2026, a few themes will continue to shape the market across Wake, Durham, Orange, and Johnston counties:

• Inventory may continue to rise, but likely not fast enough to swing the market dramatically.

• Mortgage rates remain the biggest wildcard, and even small downward shifts could bring more buyers off the sidelines.

• New construction is playing a bigger role, especially in areas where resale inventory remains tight.

• Pricing strategy matters more than ever, since buyers have more choices and are watching value closely.

  
  

The Bottom Line

The Triangle market is no longer in the frenzy of the pandemic years, but it is also far from a slowdown. What we are seeing now is a more balanced, more predictable market, which can be good for both buyers and sellers.

If you would like to talk through what these trends mean for your next move in Chapel Hill, Pittsboro, or anywhere across the Triangle, the team at BOLD Real Estate is here to help. Source: https://tarreport.com/